North Carolina’s Aging Population and Real Estate

North Carolina is experiencing a profound demographic shift, with its aging population poised to reshape the state's real estate market in the coming decades. As life expectancy rises and baby boomers transition into retirement, housing demands are evolving, influencing home prices, availability, and the need for senior-focused accommodations. This trend has major implications for homeownership, rental markets, and long-term care facilities across the state.

Demographic Shift: A Growing Senior Population

As of 2021, individuals aged 65 and older made up approximately 17% of North Carolina’s population, totaling around 1.8 million residents. By 2041, this number is expected to surge by 50% to 2.7 million, with the 85 and older cohort more than doubling from 198,000 to 423,000 during the same period. This unprecedented growth in the elderly population will place increased pressure on housing infrastructure, requiring more age-friendly options. Geographically, the percentage of seniors varies widely across the state.

Homeownership Trends Among Seniors

Currently, about 79% of North Carolinians aged 65 and older are homeowners, though this number declines as individuals age beyond 80. Many seniors prefer to age in place, opting to stay in their homes rather than downsizing or moving to retirement communities. This preference affects housing supply, as fewer homes are entering the market, creating inventory shortages in some areas.

However, maintaining a single-family home becomes increasingly difficult for older adults due to mobility challenges and rising maintenance costs. As a result, there is a growing demand for smaller, single-story homes, townhouses, and condominiums that offer easier accessibility and require less upkeep. Builders and developers are beginning to respond by constructing age-restricted communities and senior-friendly housing developments with features such as wider doorways, no-step entries, and accessible bathrooms.

The Rise in Senior Rental Demand

As the senior population grows, so does the need for affordable rental housing. The percentage of seniors renting has increased as some homeowners sell their properties to fund retirement or transition into housing that requires less upkeep. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), from 2009 to 2015, the number of renters aged 62 and older facing cost burdens (spending more than 30% of their income on rent) significantly increased.

With a large segment of seniors living on fixed incomes, affordability is a major concern. The median monthly Social Security benefit in North Carolina is $1,657, while the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in major metropolitan areas like Raleigh exceeds $1,600 per month. This disparity has led to an increased demand for low-income senior housing options, including subsidized apartments and communities designed for retirees.

Assisted Living and Continuing Care Communities

Another significant shift in North Carolina’s real estate landscape is the rising demand for assisted living facilities and continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs). These facilities cater to seniors who need varying levels of support, from independent living to full-time medical care.

With the 85+ population expected to double by 2041, the demand for these services will rise substantially. Many affluent retirees are seeking luxury retirement communities that offer resort-style amenities, while middle- and lower-income seniors face challenges in securing affordable, quality care. The state is witnessing an expansion of assisted living options, particularly in the Research Triangle.

Real Estate Investment Opportunities

The aging population presents opportunities for real estate investors looking to capitalize on the demand for senior-oriented housing. Some key trends include:

1. 55+ Active Adult Communities – Developers are building communities designed for retirees who want social engagement and easy maintenance.

2. Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) – Also known as granny flats, ADUs are becoming popular as families seek to keep elderly relatives close while maintaining independent living arrangements.

3. Medical and Senior Care Real Estate – The expansion of senior healthcare facilities, including nursing homes and memory care units, is driving demand for specialized properties.

Conclusion

The aging population in North Carolina is fundamentally reshaping the state's real estate market. With millions of baby boomers reaching retirement age, the demand for affordable, accessible, and senior-friendly housing will continue to rise. Developers, investors, and policymakers must adapt to these demographic changes by expanding housing options, ensuring affordable rental opportunities, and investing in senior care facilities. As North Carolina's elderly population grows, its real estate market must evolve to meet the needs of a rapidly changing demographic landscape.

^{_{Data Analysis by Sylvain Dufour - Data engineering and visualization by Vanessa Peeters}}